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The Price of Gold Drops Keeps Making You Want to Sneak? Eits, Hold On

The Price of Gold Drops Keeps Making You Want to Sneak? Eits, Hold On

commodity prices continue to decline. Maybe some people think this is the right time to buy gold before the price soars again. But hold on.

The price of Antam's 24-carat precious metal as of September 16 yesterday was at Rp 933,000 per gram, or down Rp 9,000 from yesterday's trading price.

If withdrawn in the past week, Antam's gold price movement was observed to move in the range of Rp. 933,000,000/gram - Rp. 950,000/gram. Meanwhile, in the last month, the movement has been in the range of Rp. 933,000/gram - Rp. 980,000/gram.

The culprit of falling gold prices

Commodity analyst Ariston Tjendra explained that the decline in gold prices was closely related to the policy plan to increase the US benchmark interest rate. The US Central Bank, the Federal Reserve confirmed that it will continue to increase its benchmark interest rate as long as US inflation remains high.

"The current US inflation range is still above 8%, while the target is 2%. Recently, there has been an expectation that the US Central Bank will increase it by 100 bp, higher than the previous 75 basis points," said Ariston

From these expectations, he continued, encouraging the strengthening of the US dollar, thereby suppressing the price of gold which is valued in US dollars.

Not only that, Ariston added, the activities of market participants who opted out of gold assets and into dollar assets whose yields rose in yields also made gold prices depressed.

Also responding to the current condition of the gold commodity market, Director of TRFX Garuda Futures Ibrahim Ascustombi said that the US inflation rate in the third quarter of this year is predicted to contract by 0.6%. If that happens, the US is entering a recession and its central bank will likely raise interest rates this month.

"The increase in interest rates is not only in September. In November, December, it is likely that the US Central Bank will raise interest rates even tighter, meaning above 75 basis points," Ibrahim explained.

Russia, which will stop the flow of oil and gas to Europe, also affects the price of this gold commodity. This condition, said Ibrahim, indicates that Europe is likely to experience quite high inflation. This will result in a recession in a big country like Germany.

"This 75% increase in interest rates in Europe does not mean that the price of gold is rising but that the price of gold is falling. Because of this recession, European countries are in chaos. This is what makes the dollar injection continue to strengthen," said Ibrahim.

The Price of Gold Drops Keeps Making You Want to Sneak? Eits, Hold On

Is It The Right Time To Buy Gold?

According to Ibrahim , now is not the right time to buy gold . Because he predicts the price of gold will go down again.

"This is a lot of people who are trapped. Many say this has gone down, this is the right time to make a purchase, not yet," he explained.

Currently, the price of gold has touched US$ 1,664/oz or Rp. 797,127/gr. He predicts that the price of gold will continue to decline until the end of 2022.

"This price will continue to fall. There is a high possibility that this price will be at US$1,650/oz. That's why I say, this technical will continue to fall. If it breaks at US$1,650/oz, this price may continue to fall ," he said

This price decline will continue to occur due to the current global economic conditions, especially regarding US inflation which penetrates above 8% and Russia which will stop the flow of oil and gas to Europe. This condition indicates that Europe is likely to experience quite high inflation.

Even for the US inflation itself, in the third quarter of this year is predicted to contract 0.6%. If that happens, the US is entering a recession and its central bank will likely raise interest rates this month.

Therefore, according to him, the right time to buy precious metals is when the price has broken at US$1,650/oz.

"When the price is low, the Central Bank of America will no longer raise interest rates, that's the right time to make a purchase. It could be this year the world gold price is below US$ 1,600/oz, be careful," he said. Abraham.

"Actually, if we want to buy precious metal, it's right at the price of US $ 1,650/oz, that's okay. Even if the price drops below that, the term is not too big a difference," he added.

On the other hand, Commodity Analyst Ariston Tjendra said, although the price is still likely to fall, the current moment of decline in gold prices can still be used by people who are interested in long-term investments.

"When prices fall, it is a good price to buy gold. But for longer-term investments, for example 2-3 years," said Ariston.

"Yes, the possibility of going down is still open, you can buy it in installments," he added.

The decline in gold prices is closely related to the policy plan to increase the US benchmark interest rate in the future. Moreover, recently there are expectations that the US Central Bank will increase by 100 bps, higher than the previous 75 basis points.

However, Ariston said, the activities of market participants who opted out of gold assets and into dollar assets whose yields rose in yields also depressed gold prices.


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